微信、游戏、AI 全面开花，再一次走到了“爆发前夜”。
3 月 19 日港股盘后，腾讯向市场递上 2024Q4 及全年财报。
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值得一提的是，2024Q4 经营利润（Non-IFRS）同比增长 21% 达 594.8 亿元，推动 Q4 经营利润率由上年同期的 27% 上升至 30%。
与之对应，Q4 毛利同比增长 16.9% 达 906.53 亿元，推动季度毛利率提升至 53%，主要得益于（高毛利率的）本土市场游戏、视频号及微信搜一搜等业务的强劲增长。
概言之，腾讯 2024Q4 各项核心指标均是上扬曲线，且净利润、毛利、经营利润均跑赢营收增速——若将时间轴拉长，营收七连增、经营利润连续九个季度跑赢营收增速，业务修整步入成果兑现期。
当然，业绩“稳质增量”背后，腾讯组织瘦身结束，人员重回扩张周期——截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，腾讯共有110558名员工，同比（2023 年 12 月 31 日员工数105416人）增加 5142 人，环比（2024 年 9 月 30 日员工数108823人）增加1735人，连续第三个季度实现员工正增长。
腾讯游戏，王者归来
缓缓铺开腾讯 2024Q4 财报，增值服务、营销服务、金融科技与企业服务三大主营业务收入齐增，各业务整体占比与上个季度变化不大。
首先，增值服务依然是腾讯泵血的核心支柱，2024Q4 该业务收入同比增长 14% 达 790 亿元；其中，回暖的游戏业务站稳双位数增速，收入同比增长 20% 达 492 亿元，极大提振了 IEG（腾讯互动娱乐事业群）的士气。
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拆开来看，Q4 本土市场收入同比增长 23% 达 332 亿元，创近三年新高，且连续两个季度稳住双位数增速势头。
一方面，游戏行业回暖明显，叠加去年同期低基数影响，推动 Q4 本土市场增速强劲——Sensor Tower 发布的《2025 年移动游戏市场报告》显示，全球移动游戏用户的应用内购买支出结束“两连跌“，2024 年同比增长 4% 至 810 亿元。
值得一提的是，2024 年只有 4 款游戏流水首破 10 亿美元大关，腾讯独占两席，分别是《地下城与勇士：起源》以及《Brawl Stars》。
另一方面，腾讯长青游戏矩阵从 12 款增至 14 款（腾讯财报将年流水超过 40 亿元且季度平均日活超过 500 万的手游或超过 200 万的 PC 游戏定义为长青游戏），“长青游戏战略”初见成效。
具体来看，旗舰长青游戏中，《王者荣耀》《和平精英》表现是“两棵摇钱树”——10 月 27 日，《王者荣耀》再度官宣 DAU（日活跃用户数）破亿，意味着其上线第九年 DAU 仍处于亿级水平；《和平精英》则因新赛季更新及高质量皮肤卖爆，9 月流水同比大增 24%。
其他长青游戏方面，上线四年的《金铲铲之战》仍保持强劲的增长势头——Sensor Tower 统计，2024Q4 《金铲铲之战》流水同比增长 30%，连续八个季度实现双位数增长。
至于具备长青潜力的新游，去年 9 月底上线的《三角洲行动》注册玩家已突破 4000 万，其在第三方网吧游戏热力榜上稳居 Top 5，今年 2 月蹿至 Top 3；《无畏契约》亦表现稳健，今年 2 月热度几乎是去年同期的三倍。
更重要的一个趋势是，2024 年腾讯新一线产品开始崭露头角：《金铲铲之战》《无畏契约》《火影忍者》《暗区突围》《三角洲行动》以及 LOL 手游、CF 手游均蹿到细分品类头部，甚至第一的位置。
这恰恰符合腾讯对游戏业务发展的调整——2023Q3 财报会议中，腾讯管理层表示：“未来将聚焦于维持和增长长青游戏，同时创造有潜力成为长青游戏的新游戏——这意味着我们将更加聚焦于少数游戏而不是做很多的新游戏。与此同时，必须给每款游戏很强的定位、非常强的品类和玩法，投入很高的人力和制作价值，以便超越玩家的预期，成为游戏市场上的品类领导者。”
值得一提的是，2024Q1 腾讯游戏扭转下滑趋势时，虎嗅就预判本土市场基本恢复了增长活力，只不过彼时受财务递延影响——若剔除该因素干扰，7、8 月 DNF 手游持续蝉联畅销榜第一、《王者荣耀》《和平精英》加速回暖、《极品飞车：集结》《三角洲行动》新品加持，Q3、Q4 游戏业务必定在财报拉出陡峭上扬曲线。
再来看国际游戏市场，2024Q4 收入同比增长 15% 达 160 亿元，刷新季度收入新高——主要受益于《荒野乱斗》《PUBG MOBILE》的强劲表现，以及《流放之路 2》抢先体验版的发布。
具体来看，腾讯旗下的《PUBG MOBILE》《Brawl Stars》等游戏在海外表现出色，其中以《Brawl Stars》为主要代表的 supercell 游戏人气急升，实现活跃用户和游戏流水的明显增长——另据 supercell的披露，2024 年公司总收入达 28 亿欧元，同比增长 77%；息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）达 8.76 亿欧元，同比增长 78%，创下 supercell 的历史新高。
这也就不奇怪，马化腾为何会在今年 1 月的腾讯年会上用“非常争气” 定调过去一年游戏业务的表现。
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而且，延续 2024 年游戏业务的“火热手感”，腾讯顺势在 2025 年前两个月上演了一场“王者归来”的戏码：
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如此强势的市场表现，就连高盛也在近期发布的研报中预测：2025 年腾讯游戏会在 2024 年的高基数之下继续保持 10% 的增速。
当然，IEG 的“自我革新”也极大提振了业务信心——2025 年才过去两个月，IEG 已连续推动两轮架构调整，一月一调整的频率足见腾讯游戏变革的决心。
以 2 月 IEG 架构调整为例，腾讯内部员工认为可以从两个方面来理解：
此外，IEG 经常会在内部推动一些局部调整，涉及方向大致围绕长青游戏、新玩法和新赛道、全球化和投资等业务话题展开。
是时候重估微信了
值得一提的是，腾讯 2024Q4 营销服务在外部承压之下，收入依旧同比增长 17% 达 350 亿元；全年累计收入更是同比增长 20% 达 1214 亿元，跻身增长最快的业务板块。
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这背后，微信作为核心“引擎”，可谓居功至伟。
财报显示，2024Q4 微信及 WeChat 合并月活跃账户数增至 13.85 亿，环比净增 300 万，外界惊讶于微信在高基数上仍能保持渗透，腾讯内部则越发凸显微信生态之于集团的重要性：
先说小程序，生态持续活跃，Q3 交易额就已突破两万亿元（包含餐饮零售、交通出行、民生缴费等多个场景的线上线下服务），恰恰符合五年前张小龙在微信公开课上的预判，“小程序的使命是让创造价值的人获得回报，腾讯如果自己垄断头部流量，那整个生态就没有了，微信希望建立一个让创造者体现价值的市场，一个非常活跃、充分竞争的市场。”
尤其，依托小程序生态的小游戏风头正盛：微信小游戏团队在“2025 微信公开课 PRO 小游戏专场”分享，过去一年，微信小游戏的月活稳定在 5 亿，14 日留存超过 50%，前三季度 IAA 小游戏（通过广告变现盈利的超休闲游戏）变现规模同比增长 30%，有超过 900 款 IAA 小游戏年流水过百万。
其次是搜索，微信搜一搜检索量快速增长，通过接入混元、DeepSeek 等大模型，显著提升搜索智能化与精准度——眼下，腾讯自研模型驱动的搜索结果已覆盖超过 90% 的问答类搜索。
最后是交易生态，虽然视频号依托 AI 优化内容推荐与广告投放，Q4 季度广告收入同比增长 60%；但是，微信商业化短期“风向标”还要看微信小店。
遵照马化腾“让状态最好的人上场”的意志，微信小店在 Q4 摇身一变成了微信生态至关重要的“中枢”——依托微信生态的社交、内容与支付能力，2024 全年微信小店 GMV 同比增长 192%，订单数量增长 125%。
这背后，随着微信小店串联小程序、视频号扩大至微信全域，进一步刺激服务商角色横向扩容。虎嗅了解到，微信小店 2024 下半年简化商家入驻门槛后，新增超 300 个开放类目，全年微信生态内商家数较去年翻了一倍，平台通过服务商开拓超过 41 个产业带，微信生态累计入驻服务商已超3000家，服务商家数量超过40000家。
至此，“小步快跑”的创新闯劲叠加供给端陡峭的上扬曲线，自然带动微信交易生态蓬勃的生命力——经营势能投射到消费端，两句话便可概括 2024 年的微信交易生态：高价值用户持续活跃，人群结构更加丰富多元。
穿透到具体用户画像，微信团队分享了三组关键数据：
此外，随着微信小店打通公众号、服务号、视频号、搜一搜等入口，交易生态内正衍生出新流量场景。例如，2024Q4 上线的“送礼物”功能，本质是通过人与人之间的情感连接让商品在社交关系中流转，却意外在商家群体激发出高昂的参与热情：
以东方甄选微信小店为例，2025 年元旦和除夕夜期间，其送礼订单较前一日分别暴增 1622% 和661%，除夕夜全天 GMV 超 500 万。目前，东方甄选送礼订单在整体订单中占比已达 85%，部分重要节假日时占比超过 90%。
当然，从微信 2024 下半年的行军速度来看，重点强化服务商与商家的撮合能力、简化平台政策仍会成为 2025 年的主旋律。虎嗅了解到，微信小店近期针对带货者业务明确了 2025 年的三个重要方向：
某美妆品牌负责人向虎嗅分析，“公私域联动”或将成为接下来微信小店核心经营路径。“团队复盘市面上比较成功的冷启动视频号带货，品牌都非常重视前期目标拆解、人员分配、IP 曝光打造以及用户增长，存在强大私域流量用户沉淀及经营能力。”
概言之：微信再次成为腾讯财报中“最靓的仔”——视频号拉广告，小程序拉金融支付，微信小游戏拉高毛利率，微信小店撑起交易生态——向来“克制”的微信，开始由线到面推动商业化提速。
390亿猛砸AI，腾讯不心疼
最后，将目光拉到腾讯新的发展“重心”上——腾讯 ToB 业务（金融科技及企业服务）受到宏观环境波动影响，Q4 收入同比微增 3% 为 561 亿元。
先看金融科技部分，按照腾讯财报的说法，金融科技服务收入的增长，反映了理财服务及消费贷款服务收入增长，而商业支付服务收入则同比大致稳定。
再看企业服务部分，增长主要是商家技术服务费及企业微信收入增长所驱动。财报显示，腾讯会议 Q4 收入同比增长超 40%，AI 功能月活增长至 1500万，企业微信收入同比翻倍。
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事实上，2015 年至今腾讯持续布局产业互联网，此后即便短期业绩承压，其仍保持对战略业务和科技创新的持续投入——这背后逻辑并不难理解：当腾讯已成为贯穿数万家企业、千亿就业岗位的链接管道，能否构建起包括服务器、操作系统、芯片、SaaS 等在内的完整自研体系，很大程度上影响着其生态重构的进度，以及能否蜕变为广义的互联网入口。
为此，腾讯不惜下血本，持续在技术投入上“烧钱”——2024Q4 狂砸 390 亿元搞 AI 基建，约占腾讯单季利润的 76%；2024 全年资本开支更是同比激增 221% 至 767.6 亿元、创历史新高，直接将市场预期的 260 亿元秒成了渣。
“目前 AI 生态还在早期，各行各业都会受益于 AI 普及，相信每个行业都会拥抱这个机会。我们业界和梁文锋都有交流，很敬佩市场上出现独立、开源的产品，我们非常尊重。”马化腾表示，在具身智能领域，腾讯希望成为所有机器人厂商的合作伙伴，而不是取而代之做硬件。
值得玩味的是，今年春节后，腾讯元宝一度通过“钞能力”先超豆包、再超 DeepSeek，最终于 3 月 3 日登顶中国区 APP Store 免费榜，一切似乎又回到了移动互联网卷投放、抢渠道入口的“暴力烧钱”路径。
对此，腾讯总裁刘炽平在今天的腾讯年报沟通会上表示，从 2 月到 3 月，元宝 DAU（日活跃用户 数）增长超 20 倍，成为中国 DAU 排名第三的 AI 原生移动应用。“但是未来不会纯粹靠投流来获得用户，会更加关注留存率，也会通过有机联动方式使元宝和其他产品进行进一步协作，给用户提供更好的使用体验。”
随后，刘炽平重申腾讯对 AI 投入的决心，“去年全年腾讯的资本开支突破 768 亿元，同比增长 221%，相当于收入的大约 12%；其中，四季度资本支出增加非常显著，因为季度内购买了更多 GPU 以满足推理需求，我们计划在 2025 年进一步增加资本支出，预计将占收入的低两位数百分比。”
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值得一提的是，腾讯资本开支已连续四个季度实现同比三位数增长，七年累计投入达到惊人的 3403 亿元，足见腾讯本轮押注 AI 军备竞赛的决心。
等于说，腾讯调整生长路径，数实经济重心越发向着 AI 倾斜——过去一年，基于“自研+开源”的多模型策略，腾讯已推动全域业务加速融合 AI 进程：
对此，马化腾表态，“数月前，我们重组了 AI 团队以聚焦于快速的产品创新及深度模型研发、增加了 AI 相关的资本开支、并加大了对原生 AI 产品的研发和营销力度。我们相信这些加大的投资，会通过提升广告业务的效率及游戏的生命周期而带来持续的回报，并创造更长远的价值。”
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